I've now been linked by Majikthise, which makes me feel obligated to post something decent. This is probably a good thing; I usually work better under pressure.
I've been reading Freiheit und Wissen recently, and it has made me think about an issue to which I don't know the solution. A particular recent post that has made me think about the issue is cntodd's discussion of CAFTA. Now, I do not know if CAFTA is a good idea or not. Some people I respect make the argument that any free trade agreement at all should virtually always be supported, because free trade is generally good, so it's vital to keep up the momentum toward more free trade. I find that argument somewhat suspect; surely accepting really bad free trade agreements will have the undesirable effect of encouraging future free trade agreements to include equally bad elements. On the other side, I've encountered arguments that CAFTA is in fact really bad, that in particular it imposes the absurd, draconian U.S. intellectual property approach on other countries, and also actively hinders pro-labor efforts in the poor countries which would be part of the deal. Thus, I am inclined to be tentatively anti-CAFTA.
So that's my position. Cntodd makes an additional argument against CAFTA which I would like to examine. First, he argues that CAFTA isn't really providing free trade, because it has too many exceptions. Fine; this is one of the reasons I'm tentatively on the anti-CAFTA side. Surely if the point is to encourage free trade, only agreements that actually produce more free trade are desirable. However, cntodd takes this as a launching point for one of the most bizarre anti-trade arguments I've ever seen from a leftist. He argues that the conservatives who have posed as champions of free trade, such as Reagan and the Bushes, have consistently failed to practice what they preached; in general, their agreements have fallen far short of free trade goals. Cntodd suggests that this is because they realized free trade isn't really good for the economy, and so preferred other policies.
Of course, "good for the economy" can be interpreted in many different ways. Since cntodd seems to be agreeing with Reagan and the Bushes, I'm assuming he's interpreting it as "good for the prosperity of everyone, or at least most people." In that case, I am quite astonished; I would not have thought that someone as generally far left as cntodd would have had any inclination to think that being good for Americans in general would ever be a central motivation for a Reagan or Bush policy. Personally, I quite agree with cntodd that Reagan and the Bushes have been poor free traders, but I can't understand why he thinks this is because they knew free trade would be bad for the country.
Perhaps the reason is that, like many far leftists, he is suspicious of the value of free trade, and so he's automatically assuming that anybody who agrees with him in finding free trade suspect must be right, even if they're wrong about lots of other things. And that, finally, brings up the main issue I wanted to discuss. My opinions on economic policy are, to a considerable degree, determined by what I can pick up from economists. I'm not an economist myself, so I feel like the best course I can take is to, for the most part, defer to experts. However, it is clearly necessary to be cautious in so doing, and try to correct for obvious biases in the experts when I can detect them.
Notably, a majority of economists seem to have a pro-wealthy bias. They tend to conflate policies which are good for the rich with policies that are good for the people in general. It is not difficult to see why economists would tend to have such biases; anybody with even a passing familiarity with economics will be able to see the obvious there. The wealthy have a lot more money with which to pay economists, and economists are, if nothing else, quite perceptive about which side of the bread has the butter on it.
Still, economists are scientists of a sort. They construct theories on the basis of evidence about what the effects of various causes are, and while they'll generally spin their conclusions to suggest that effects for the rich are generally desirable, they do know some things about how particular causes link to particular effects. Further, they do not all share the irritating bias toward the rich; economists like Brad DeLong and Adam Smith seem to be genuinely interested in making everyone better off. So, when Brad DeLong and Adam Smith agree with all the other economists in saying that free trade is good (as they do), I tend to conclude that the evidence suggests it probably is one of those policies that's really good for everyone, not just for the rich.
However, sadly, economic policy is not generally decided by the Adam Smiths and Brad Delongs of the world. The economists who favor the rich tend to have more influence, and non-economists tend to have more yet. So any actual "free trade" agreement will tend to have been heavily influenced by lobbying groups which are not interested in the well-being of everyone, and which in many cases are pursuing (often not even competently) the well-being of a very narrow class indeed.
This doesn't happen only in the area of free trade. When the IMF imposes conditions on loans, the conditions are usually devised on the basis of fairly uncontroversial economic principles. However, exactly how to meet the IMF conditions is always up to the government seeking the loan. Obviously, those governments tend to do their best to make sure their supporters (the entrenched wealthy kleptocracy) do not end up suffering any of the pain of the conditions, and since it is the corruption of that class which is usually responsible for the biggest problems in third world countries, immunizing them from the costs of reforms (by finding clever ways to impose the costs on others) largely guarantees that the reforms will not end up actually having the benefits the IMF hopes for.
So free trade agreements will often tend to not provide the kind of free trade benefits the few idealistic economists hope for, and IMF-inspired reforms and austerity programs are well-known not to provide the kinds of benefits the IMF is (I am idealistically hoping) genuinely trying to achieve.
Of course, one of the effects of both of these phenomena is to encourage the well-justified suspicion of economics among the leftists. Economists have some good evidence about what will be good for everyone, but they also have some good evidence about what will be good for the rich or for their particular patrons, and they try to sell policies in the latter categories as if they were in the former category. So it is quite understandable that many would come to see all their recommendations as part of a great scam.
So, my questions are, first, how do we get the policies which are known to be good for people in general on the public stage; how do we separate them from the self-serving policies of the few? And, second, how do we get anyone to support them? If we do manage, by some miracle, to get policy-makers discussing policies which will bring genuine free trade, or anything else that is of general benefit, how do we persuade the justifiably skeptical that these policies are not just more scams?